Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 10.946897 12.555387 14.291858 16.302518 18.563108 21.022655 23.897690
2025-05-04 8.479306 10.627821 13.131281 16.250383 20.017890 24.406289 29.888566
2025-05-11 7.100278 9.428549 12.278469 15.998794 20.699459 26.411125 33.842847
2025-05-18 6.162212 8.617462 11.757550 16.028712 21.641583 28.715294 38.245810
2025-05-25 5.508383 8.057487 11.443544 16.214403 22.696637 31.121161 42.807471
2025-06-01 4.907825 7.487096 11.036074 16.201602 23.437677 33.108461 46.881436
2025-06-08 4.365532 6.929135 10.575171 16.045133 23.927290 34.735750 50.503977
2025-06-15 3.989689 6.568206 10.348408 16.178320 24.796827 36.891459 54.920335
2025-06-22 3.754440 6.391062 10.364797 16.648278 26.153742 39.772178 60.466172
2025-06-29 3.389555 5.971859 9.975538 16.469611 26.525530 41.236388 64.025288
2025-07-06 2.932747 5.356801 9.227911 15.675048 25.901487 41.185647 65.333438
2025-07-13 2.775919 5.224227 9.230674 16.049506 27.080192 43.855782 70.785611
2025-07-20 2.609778 5.065008 9.184583 16.352775 28.182239 46.491822 76.359531
2025-07-27 2.386183 4.782734 8.910204 16.258923 28.638711 48.149713 80.504611
2025-08-03 2.163603 4.478355 8.569736 16.021436 28.831677 49.381802 84.010688
2025-08-10 2.005269 4.277599 8.392430 16.046445 29.453158 51.313416 88.695502
2025-08-17 1.885848 4.139187 8.313807 16.234055 30.351779 53.722888 94.237022
2025-08-24 1.749342 3.953127 8.131944 16.220639 30.895323 55.561507 98.908872
2025-08-31 1.607135 3.740849 7.883031 16.064212 31.171562 56.954362 102.884396
2025-09-07 1.512936 3.618611 7.795244 16.197469 31.963964 59.244322 108.441355
2025-09-14 1.464262 3.588617 7.884098 16.667950 33.386790 62.668832 116.049321
2025-09-21 1.348890 3.401258 7.645013 16.489084 33.601196 63.994010 120.090229
2025-09-28 1.182497 3.081634 7.111204 15.693681 32.614390 63.149834 120.308181